Elicitation, analysis and mitigation of systemic pandemic risks

Sammanfattning

The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted the health care system and affected all sectors of society, including criticalinfrastructures. In turn, the impact on society’s infrastructures has impacted back on the health care sector. Theseinteractions have created a system of associated risks and outcomes, where the outcomes of risks are risksthemselves and where the resulting consequences are complex vicious cycles. Traditional risks assessmentmethods cannot cope with interdependent risks.This paper describes a novel risk systemicity approach to elicit and mitigate the systemic risks of a majorpandemic. The approach employed the internet-based software strategyfinder™ in workshops to elicit relevantrisk information from sixteen appropriately selected experts from the health care sector and major sectors impactedby and impacting back on the health care sector. The risk information was processed with powerful analyticaltools of strategyfinder to allow the experts to prioritise portfolios of strategies attacking the vicious cycles.